Are we on the cusp of a Bitcoin bubble?
What goes up must come down – or must it? Bitcoin’s recent stratospheric rise has helped push the value of crypto-currencies through the $50 billion-mark, triggering concerns over the creation of an unstable asset bubble in what is a largely unregulated market.
The rapid growth in alternative digital currencies — so-called ‘alt-coins’ — as well as in Bitcoin itself is without precedent; the value of Bitcoin alone has risen by more than 50% in a month and is currently worth more than gold. It’s an astonishing trajectory for a virtual, non-fiat currency.
Is the presidential honeymoon over?
It was one of Donald Trump’s most prominent pre-election pledges, so when the much-vaunted repeal of Obamacare failed to secure the support it needed in Congress, Wall Street signalled its disapproval via a massive share dump, bringing the stock market’s seemingly unstoppable rise to a screeching halt.
If the stellar performance of the S&P over the past few months demonstrated a level of confidence in the ability of the new president to deliver on his promises, this abrupt volte-face is a reflection of a more sombre mood. Tumbling US shares prefaced similar dips in Tokyo, Frankfurt, Paris and London as global markets wobbled over the prospect of the Trump administration’s ability to deliver on a raft of growth-boosting measures.
The winds of change
On the face of it, the ideological and political differences between the outgoing Obama administration and the incoming Trump regime could not be greater. Barely a single policy is likely to remain unaffected, with everything from public spending to international relations predicted to shift into sharp reverse under the auspices of a maverick who’s made his mark by defying convention throughout the presidential campaign.
In the last months of 2016, the financial markets reacted to Trump’s unexpected victory via a textbook surge in stocks and government yields as well as a significant upshift in the value of the dollar following predictions of increased growth and higher levels of inflation on the wave of announcements regarding deregulation, tax reforms and infrastructure spending.
Oil prices soar as Opec deal nears agreement
In a landmark agreement thrashed out at a November meeting in Vienna, oil cartel Opec has agreed to cut supplies for the first time since the global financial crisis, causing prices to soar to the $50-a-barrel mark. The 13-member-strong cartel is responsible for pumping a third of the world’s oil, so the announcement that it would cut production by around 4%, equating to a reduction of 1.2m barrels a day, was big news on the markets.
The agreement represents an about-turn for Saudi Arabia, which has been committed to rising output over the last two years in a bid to torpedo the profits of US shale and other high-cost producers. The new cuts are designed to push prices upward from a $50 floor.
Rates on hold
The announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to hold US interest rates steady in July came as no surprise to market analysts who had felt that the threat of economic uncertainty and the imminent presidential election would prevent the Federal Reserve from making any hasty decisions to hike the rate in the short term.
The race is on to be the new London
Following June’s momentous referendum result, the UK is on track to leave the European Union, sparking speculation that its capital city will see an exodus of banks looking to secure their trading position within Europe.
Large US banks, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, employ many thousands of staff in the UK, using the country as a staging point to access member states in the bloc via a trading ‘passport’. However, now that Britain’s relationship with the rest of Europe is uncertain, a number of banks are looking to review their arrangements and preparing to shift operations – in part at least – to the continent.